February Links Roundup
A collection of interesting write-ups and podcasts
In this post, I’m excited to launch a new segment on the Idea Hive blog: monthly link roundups. These recurring posts will feature a collection of interesting write-ups and podcasts I’ve come across throughout the month. While the cornerstone of these posts will be stock pitches, I will also share other investment-related content, including investor interviews, industry primers, investment philosophy pieces, and media articles, among others.
Without further ado, let’s dive into the first edition.
Stock Pitches
Adam Wilk from Greystone Capital pitched Natural Resources Partners (NRP), a royalty business that primarily owns metallurgical coal mineral rights in the U.S. With an expected debt paydown in 2025, the company is set to generate materially higher cash flows for unitholders, with an estimated 15–20% FCF yield at current depressed met coal prices. Given that NRP is an asset-light, high-margin, and consistently cash-flow-generative business, this valuation is too low. Full NRP pitch.
Andrew Walker over at Yet Another Value Blog has released a podcast on Sage Therapeutics (SAGE). SAGE is a pharma company that recently received a $7.22/share bid from its main drug partner and 10% shareholder, Biogen. Given SAGE’s drug development setbacks, the announced strategic review, and potential shareholder pressure, a company sale seems likely. There appears to be ample room for a higher bid from Biogen, considering SAGE’s large net cash position and the value of the company’s main drug to the potential acquirer. SAGE podcast.
Daniel Smoak from Smoak Capital wrote up flooring installation tool manufacturer QEP (QEPC) in the firm’s annual letter. Under the leadership of a new CEO since 2023, the company has undergone a transformation with the divestiture of several underperforming international businesses, leading to a material improvement in profitability. New management’s capital allocation has been excellent, prioritizing debt repayment, special dividends, and stock repurchases. The market, however, has yet to catch up with the positive inflection, with QEPC is trading at around 5x 2025 EBIT—less than half the multiples of peers and comparable transactions. Full QEPC pitch.
NextNav (NN) was covered in Laughing Water Capital’s Q4 letter. NN owns spectrum in the 900 MHz band, which is expected to be repurposed for broadband following FCC approval. This approval would pave the way for the company to monetize its spectrum. Valued in line with a precedent transaction on the MHz/population metric, NN’s spectrum could be worth around $40 per share, implying a multi-bagger upside. The stock has recently faced heavy non-fundamental selling pressure, with two private equity funds aggressively selling shares. Full NN pitch.
Inflexio Research pitched Danaos Corp (DAC), a Greek shipping company expected to generate close to its current market cap in earnings over the next three years. While Greek shipping companies are often known for destroying shareholder value and being run for the benefit of insiders, DAC’s CEO holds a large 40% stake, and management has pursued value-accretive stock buybacks and consistently raised dividends in recent years. Full DAC pitch.
Miscellaneous
Jeffrey Emanuel’s impressive deep dive into the short case for Nvidia stock.
Nat Bullard’s presentation on the state of the energy sector and decarbonization.
Andrew Walker’s thoughts on the abundance of investment opportunities in the small biopharma space.
RV Capital’s 2024 letter to investors (in audio format), which features a discussion on the fund’s investments in China.
Ben Kelleran’s conversation with Matt Warder, who provides an overview of the coal markets.
A Planet MicroCap podcast with Devin LaSarre, covering the nicotine industry.
Ben Thompson’s informative FAQ on DeepSeek.
An insightful 2024 annual letter from Semper Augustus Investments Group, including a discussion on Dollar General.
Undervalued Shares’ list of 12 cheap UK-listed small-cap companies.
Crescat Capital’s thoughts on the excessive valuations of U.S. mega-cap tech stocks.